Market Report Q1 2023

A Dose of Optimism This Spring: As Banking Systems Corrode, Building Blocks Are a Symbol of Certainty

Prokop Svoboda

Owner of Svoboda & Williams

Spring, as usual, generally brings optimism and new hope in our lives. This year, however, in addition to surprising temperatures, we experienced a tide of pessimism, which raised interest rates around the world to unprecedented levels. In this economic environment, it’s only a matter of time before cracks begin to appear, such as the bankruptcy of three mid-sized American banks in March or the demise of the European giant Credit Suisse.

Rising rates make financing more expensive, lower the value of assets, and crush anyone exposed to a significant debt burden from the previous era of cheap money. Nevertheless, we at Svoboda & Williams have managed to remain cautiously optimistic. Data from the first quarter of the year shows that quality real estate continues to be a relatively safe investment even during a crisis. Although in the last several months the sample of properties monitored by Svoboda & Williams saw a decline of 2.4 percent, compared to last year’s drop of 15 to 20 percent in equity indices these are favorable numbers. 

At a time when investors and most households are struggling with the negative effects of the recession, it’s healthy to take a broader view of reality. The numbers indicate that it’s building blocks that will provide the most stability in the economic lives of the majority of Czech households. It provides them with a ticket to join the global financial elite.

Does all of this sound unlikely? According to the Global Wealth Report 2021, 90 percent of the world’s population has an individual net worth of less than $138,346, i.e. roughly 3 million crowns. This means that if you own a studio apartment in Prague, you are one of the 10 percent richest people on the planet. In the Czech Republic, according to recent studies, about 54 percent of the population are homeowners and two thirds of Czech households have their assets in real estate.

As these figures show, we seem to be in pretty good shape, don’t you think?

I wish you all a pleasant, optimistic spring season!

Sample of properties monitored by Svoboda & Williams

from 10/2022–3/2023 vs. 4/2022–9/2022

  • CZK 155,440

    New builds and complete reconstructions, Ø per sq. m.

    Year-on-year -2.2%

  • CZK 137,684

    Secondary market, resales, Ø per sq. m.

    Year-on-year -3.4%

  • CZK 37,997

    Rents according to the Rental Index, monthly

    Year-on-year -3.5%

  • Decrease in Inquiries

    Year-on-year

    H3 2023 vs. H4 2022 -6.9%

PRICE ANALYSIS

The Prague residential market through the lens of Svoboda & Williams during the monitored period 10/2022–3/2023

Prague

During the monitored period from 10/2022–3/2023

Average prices during the monitored period OCTOBER 2022–MARCH 2023 and their half-year change compared to APRIL 2022–SEPTEMBER 2022.

Ø Apt. price* Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. size Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. price
New apt.** Resale apt. 1bdrm 2bdrm
Sales CZK 13,747,553 CZK 149,600 91.9 sq. m. CZK 155,440 CZK 137,684 CZK 8,930,162 CZK 14,761,867
4.1% -2.4% 6.7% -2.2% -3.4% -5.0% 5.3%
Rentals CZK 37,997 N/A 91.7 sq. m. N/A N/A CZK 27,788 CZK 40,267
-3.5% N/A -9.7% N/A N/A -1.0% -0.9%

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams | *new builds and reconstructions | **all layouts

Data Summary

Average achieved rents (October 2022–March 2023)

Average achieved rents (October 2022–March 2023) for 1bdrms and 2bdrms

OVERALL SUMMARY OF AVERAGE ACHIEVED RENTAL PRICES IN MUNICIPAL DISTRICTS (October 2022–March 2022)

Municipal district Ø Monthly rent Ø Apt. floor space Ø Monthly rent 1bdrm Ø Monthly rent 2bdrm
Prague 1 CZK 43,925 107.1 sq. m. CZK 32,681 CZK 45,124
Prague 2 CZK 43,998 98.8 sq. m. CZK 24,947 CZK 44,829
Prague 3 CZK 38,289 91.4 sq. m. CZK 26,706 CZK 37,500
Prague 4 CZK 38,667 112.5 sq. m. CZK 22,125 CZK 42,250
Prague 5 CZK 34,713 84.1 sq. m. CZK 28,780 CZK 36,413
Prague 6 CZK 40,162 95.8 sq. m. CZK 27,624 CZK 34,000
Prague 7 CZK 29,058 73.3 sq. m. CZK 24,629 CZK 37,356
Prague 8 CZK 37,388 77.1 sq. m. CZK 32,843 CZK 43,719
Prague 9 CZK 31,107 87.8 sq. m. CZK 22,083 CZK 34,625
Prague 10 CZK 28,350 81.0 sq. m. CZK 21,750 CZK 34,833

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

AVERAGE ACHIEVED RENTS VS. SALES PRICES FOR SPECIFIC LAYOUTS IN PRAGUE 1-10 (October 2022–March 2022)

Layout Ø Monthly rent Rentals Ø apt. floor space Ø Selling price Sales Ø apt. floor space
studio CZK 20,117 38.8 sq. m. CZK 5,255,895 31.6 sq. m.
1bdrm CZK 27,788 64.8 sq. m. CZK 8,930,162 62.0 sq. m.
2bdrm CZK 40,267 100.2 sq. m. CZK 14,761,867 99.8 sq. m.
3bdrm CZK 57,408 141.3 sq. m. CZK 25,077,364 157.8 sq. m.
4bdrm CZK 88,416 217.1 sq. m. CZK 27,982,000 200.3 sq. m.

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

Achieved sales for premium apartments in Prague

Price/sq. m. for new builds and reconstructions

Price/sq. m. for resales

OVERALL SUMMARY OF AVERAGE ACHIEVED SALES PRICES IN MUNICIPAL DISTRICTS (October 2022–March 2023)

Municipal district Ø Apt. price* Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. size Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. price
New apt.** Resale apt. 1bdrm 2bdrm
Prague 1 CZK 21,638,267 CZK 204,061 106.0 sq. m. CZK 225,606 CZK 189,556 CZK 12,716,667 CZK 19,484,250
Prague 2 CZK 11,090,086 CZK 161,379 68.7 sq. m. CZK 165,366 CZK 157,184 CZK 8,285,722 CZK 15,823,333
Prague 3 CZK 11,961,304 CZK 144,215 82.9 sq. m. CZK 154,475 CZK 142,340 CZK 7,925,189 CZK 12,658,000
Prague 4 CZK 14,265,000 CZK 135,112 105.6 sq. m. CZK 148,730 CZK 121,578 CZK 8,325,000 CZK 13,666,667
Prague 5 CZK 13,420,217 CZK 139,411 96.3 sq. m. CZK 145,962 CZK 129,395 CZK 8,335,903 CZK 13,922,600
Prague 6 CZK 15,540,000 CZK 143,555 108.3 sq. m. CZK 142,272 CZK 128,925 CZK 9,990,000 CZK 15,500,000
Prague 7 CZK 22,530,000 CZK 155,798 144.6 sq. m. CZK 157,071 CZK 142,650 CZK 8,720,000 CZK 15,080,000
Prague 8 CZK 9,296,019 CZK 146,227 63.6 sq. m. CZK 157,542 CZK 132,964 CZK 9,026,113 CZK 12,113,143
Prague 9 CZK 9,461,600 CZK 118,859 79.6 sq. m. CZK 123,059 CZK 116,850 CZK 6,429,000 CZK 10,250,000
Prague 10 CZK 10,866,397 CZK 130,966 83.0 sq. m. CZK 137,689 CZK 128,332 CZK 8,357,500 CZK 13,393,725

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams | *new builds and reconstructions | **all layouts

Methodology of Data Processing

The following analysis is based on data obtained from the database of properties offered by Svoboda & Williams during the monitored period (October 2022–March 2023). Sales transactions were supplemented with data on sales of new builds with parameters that match Svoboda & Williams’ portfolio (in this case, the achieved prices were obtained from the Cadastre of Real Estate). The sample monitored by Svoboda & Williams contains nearly 260 sold and 500 rented properties over a 6-month period and therefore covers a significant portion of the premium segment of the Prague residential market. 

The monitored properties are apartments in Prague 1–10; other municipal districts are minimally represented. Within each district, most of the properties in the sample are in premium locations with higher achieved prices such as Bubeneč, Dejvice, Střešovice, and Břevnov in Prague 6, Pankrác, Vyšehrad, and Podolí in Prague 4, Karlín and parts of Libeň in Prague 8, Smíchov in Prague 5, etc. The monitored property prices and rents are actually achieved transactions; we don’t monitor advertised prices. To calculate the price per sq. m., we take into account the price for parking spaces, which we deduct from the achieved sales price and we also include a proportional part of the exterior (terraces, balconies, loggias, and gardens) in the floor area of the apartment (according to the New Civil Code). To recalculate the exterior area, we apply a specially developed algorithm that progressively reduces this area and takes into account the ratio of the exterior to the interior area. Average prices are calculated from the transactions finalized over the last 6 months (10/2022–3/2023); percentage changes are year-on-year (10/2022–3/2023 vs. 4/2022–9/2022). For sales, we also differentiate between the achieved price per sq. m. for two categories: new builds (e.g. apartments in residential projects and completely reconstructed units) and resale, or secondhand, apartments. The prices of new apartments in residential developments are listed including VAT. In order to be able to compare the prices per sq. m. for all apartments, we unified the stage of construction progress for several units using an average assumption of CZK 50,000/sq. m. for the stage prior to reconstruction (shell & core) and CZK 20,000/sq. m. for the stage before the completion of surfaces (white walls). We don’t monitor the price per sq. m. for rentals. While the price per sq. m. is relevant for sales, for rentals the price is determined mainly by layout in addition to location. For example, a one-bedroom apartment with a 50 sq. m. floor area is normally rented for the same price as an apartment with the same layout with a floor area of 60 sq. m., whereas the purchase price of a larger apartment can be up to 15 to 20% higher. Therefore, in our analyses of residential rentals we work with the total rent, and not with the price per sq. m. 

For a better picture, we also state the achieved price for the most frequent layouts in the sales and rental transactions realized by Svoboda & Williams, i.e., one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments. 

Data analysis

Methodology of Svoboda & Williams

Ne

Listed price

Ano

Achieved price

Price per sq. m =
Achieved sales price - price of parking Apartment area + proportional part of the exterior (b/t/g)

Algorithm for conversion of the exterior

The area of a terrace that exceeds 30% of the interior is divided by two.

Rental Price Index for H2 2022

Svoboda & Williams + VŠE

Achieved rents for premium apartments in Prague

H3 2023 (October 2022–March 2023)

CZK 37,997 / month

Average achieved rents in H3 2023

Achieved rents for apartments in H3 2023 (October 2022–March 2023) per segment and their half-year change compared to H4 2022 (April 2022–September 2022)

Segment Center Wider center Rest of Prague
Studio to 1bdrm CZK 28,090 -7.9% CZK 25,705 8.9% CZK 21,385 2.2%
2bdrm CZK 45,190 4.9% CZK 38,650 -1.4% CZK 32,750 1.9%
3bdrm and larger CZK 75,461 10.3% CZK 68,163 1.7% CZK 40,818 -16.5%

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

Development of achieved rents for apartments in the segment monitored by Svoboda & Williams (2015 H3 = 100)

Prague 1 Prague 2 Prague 6 Prague 5 Prague 4 Prague 3 Prague 7 Prague 8 Prague 9 Prague 10
  • Center
  • Wider center
  • Rest of Prague

WHAT IS THE RENTAL PRICE INDEX BY Svoboda & Williams + VŠE?

The Rental Price Index by S&W + VŠE is an analytical tool that monitors the growth of rental prices in the premium segment in Prague developed by the Svoboda & Williams real estate agency in cooperation with the Faculty of Informatics and Statistics of the University of Economics in Prague. The data is sourced from the actually achieved rents of the apartments that were listed by Svoboda & Williams. Annually, it amounts to 1,200 properties in the territory of Prague 1–10 with studio to 5-bedroom layouts. Since the properties exhibit a high level heterogeneity, we apply an aggregate price index to the development of their prices. It works just like the Consumer Price Index maintained by the Czech Statistical Office, which measures inflation.

The current Rental Price Index by S&W + VŠE monitors the changes in the average achieved rental price for an apartment in Prague from the portfolio of Svoboda & Williams for H3 (October 2022–March 2023) and compares them to H4 (April 2022–September 2022). This aggregate price index also states the average achieved monthly rents in the monitored period H3 2023 (October 2022–March 2023) in Prague for each apartment category, including the semi-annual change in average monthly rents.

WHY SIMPLY COMPARING THE AVERAGE PRICE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ENOUGH?

The development of average rental prices doesn’t correctly reflect the actual change in prices. This is because the average rent is influenced not only by fluctuations in prices, but also by a changed product structure. Let’s give an example. In two monitored periods, a sample of apartments including luxury apartments in the center of Prague and cheaper apartments in the broader center have been rented. The prices of both the cheaper and the luxury apartments in the second period remain equal, but more of the expensive units have been rented. This will raise average rents, but the price index will remain the same. The aggregate price index is based on the assumption of the fixed presence of rental segments in the portfolio and therefore reflects the change in price, which is “cleaned” of the change in the rental structure. The index is calculated as a weighted average of the price changes in the individual segments, where the weights are their representation in the portfolio (structure) in the selected fixed period.

CONSTRUCTION OF THE RENTAL PRICE INDEX BY SVOBODA & WILLIAMS + VŠE

SELECTION OF SEGMENTS

The segmentation made sure that the apartments in the same group were as similar as possible and, on the other hand, that the groups were as different as possible. At the same time, each group had to contain a sufficient amount of data. Within the statistical analysis, the impact of many factors on rental prices was examined. These parameters included the specific layout of an apartment, its location, floor, and whether it came with a terrace, balcony, or loggia, or the option to rent a parking space. The analysis proved that rents were most affected by the location and layout of the apartment, and therefore we performed the segmentation based on these two factors. Based on our expertise and the data analysis of rental prices, we divided Prague into three locations—the center, the wider center, and the rest of Prague (see map above).

Apartment layouts were chosen as the second factor.

Based on the location and the layout we defined 9 segments in total:

Relative representation in the portfolio

Segment Center Wider Center Rest of Prague
Studio to 1bdrm 13.5% 28.2% 7.2%
2bdrm 11.3% 16.0% 5.0%
3bdrm and larger 6.9% 8.8% 3.0%

Note: Apartments with 6-bedroom layouts and larger are represented too sparsely and they are not included in the analysis.

SELECTION OF WEIGHTS

We assigned weights to the individual segments on the basis of the structure of the apartments rented during the calendar year of 2016. The weight of a segment in the price index is calculated as a proportion of the total rent in the relevant segment to the total rent for all segments brokered in 2016. The index is compiled on a biannual basis to ensure that a sufficient number of observations could be made. In practice, biannual indexes aren’t as common as monthly or quarterly indexes, but they’re by no means exceptional. For example, the United States Department of Labor uses one to construct the consumer price index.

WE CALCULATE TWO KINDS OF INDEXES: 

A year-on-year index – monitors the rental price changes between the last six months of H3 (October 2022–March 2023) compared to the previous 6 months of last year H4 (April 2022–September 2022) 

A base index – monitors the rental price changes between the current and the so-called base period. A stable period considered a long-term “normal” default should be selected as a base period, in our case H3 2015.

Contact Us

Follow Us

svoboda-williams.com
© 2024 Svoboda & Williams