Market Report Q3 2023

Snow White Is Awakening from Her Slumber—a Growth Curve Looms on the Horizon

Prokop Svoboda

Owner of Svoboda & Williams

Endless months when the real estate market resembled a sleeping Snow White are behind us. In order to provide our clients with the most up-to-date services, exactly a year ago we decided to write and publish Svoboda & Williams’ Market Report on a quarterly basis, i.e. four times a year.

We supplement the data on our sales transactions with data on completed sales corresponding to our monitored sample from the Cadastre of Real Estate and only track actual achieved sales values, not offered prices. To calculate the price per sq. m., the selected methodology then takes into account the ratio of the exterior to the interior areas, the condition of the property, the quality of the facilities, and subtracts the price for parking from the achieved sales price. No other available analytical tool goes into such detail, not to mention that many don’t even work with source data. I would venture to say that, for the monitored sample, we offer the most detailed analysis available on the local market.

What does the current data have to say about Snow White? It’s assuring us that the sleeping beauty is finally waking up after several months of slumber!

Inquiries for properties, which began to go up at the beginning of the summer, continue to rise. The wake-up call, or, if you like, the prince’s kiss, wasn’t so much the symbolic affordability of mortgages, but rather the signals that central bankers have sent out in recent months. The mortgage market in the Czech Republic had a half-yearly growth of 42.6 percent. Svoboda & Williams also recorded clients’ increased interest in financing the purchase of real estate with loans, 10 percent more than half a year ago.

We must also come to terms with the fact that recent events are changing the real estate market for the foreseeable future. The multi-year real estate party, fueled by, among other things, the extreme fiscal reaction of central bankers to global geopolitical events, has now come to an end. However, an investor who is adding this particular asset to his or her portfolio is thinking in the long-term. And this future is where growth awaits!

This was also the consensus of 1,400 experts from 133 countries surveyed by the German Ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Institute. They expect property prices to soar in the coming decade. In Eastern Europe, prices could rise by over 15 percent each year. This may be a fairytale, but given the high costs of construction, which the market hasn’t fully absorbed, or the reduced stock and development of properties, I think it’s more than likely that these optimistic predictions will come true.

Sample of Properties Monitored by Svoboda & Williams

10/2022–3/2023 vs. 4/2023–9/2023

  • CZK 152,220

    New builds and reconstructions, Ø per sq. m.

    Half-year change -2.1%

  • CZK 140,804

    Secondary market - resales, Ø per sq. m.

    Half-year change +2.3%

  • CZK 40,542

    Monthly Rent per the Rental Price Index

    Half-year change +6.9%

  • Increase in inquiries

    Sample of properties monitored by S&W

    Half-year change +26.1%

Price Analysis

The Prague residential market through the lens of Svoboda & Williams during the monitored period 4/2023–9/2023. The analysis takes into account actually achieved values of sales transactions.

Methodology of Data Processing

The Sample of Properties Monitored by Svoboda & Williams

The analysis is based on data obtained from the database of properties offered by Svoboda & Williams during the monitored period (April 2023–September 2023). The property prices and rent levels tracked are the actual values of achieved transactions; we don't rely on offered prices. Sales transactions were supplemented with data on sales of new builds with parameters that match Svoboda & Williams’ portfolio (in this case, the achieved prices were obtained from the Cadastre of Real Estate). The sample monitored by Svoboda & Williams contains nearly 200 sold and 500 rented properties over a 6-month period and therefore covers a significant portion of the premium segment of the Prague residential market. For a better picture, we also state the achieved price for the most frequent layouts in the sales and rental transactions realized by Svoboda & Williams, i.e., one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments. 

The monitored properties are apartments in Prague 1–10; other municipal districts are minimally represented. Within each district, most of the properties in the sample are in premium locations with higher achieved prices such as Bubeneč, Dejvice, Střešovice, and Břevnov in Prague 6, Pankrác, Vyšehrad, and Podolí in Prague 4, Karlín and parts of Libeň in Prague 8, Smíchov in Prague 5, etc. 

Calculating the Price per Sq. M.

Average prices are calculated from the transactions finalized over the last 6 months (4/2023–9/2023); percentage changes are half year (4/2023–9/2023 vs. 10/2022–3/2023).

Sales

To calculate the price per sq. m., we take into account the price for parking spaces, which we deduct from the achieved sales price and we also include a proportional part of the exterior (terraces, balconies, loggias, and gardens) in the floor area of the apartment (according to the Civil Code). To recalculate the exterior area, we apply a specially developed algorithm that progressively reduces this area and takes into account the ratio of the exterior to the interior area.  

For sales, we also determine the price per sq. m. for two categories: new builds (new apartments in residential projects, completely reconstructed apartment buildings, or loft conversions) and resales (secondhand apartments). The prices of new apartments in residential developments are listed including VAT. In order to be able to compare the prices per sq. m. for all apartments, we unified the stage of construction progress for several units using an average assumption of CZK 50,000/sq. m. for the stage prior to reconstruction (shell & core) and CZK 20,000/sq. m. for the stage before the completion of surfaces (white walls)

Rentals

While the price per sq. m. is relevant for sales, for rentals the price is determined mainly by layout in addition to location, which is why we don’t monitor the price per sq. m. for rentals. For example, a one-bedroom apartment with a 50 sq. m. floor area is normally rented for the same price as an apartment with the same layout with a floor area of 60 sq. m., whereas the purchase price of a larger apartment can be up to 15 to 20% higher. Therefore, in our analyses of residential rentals we work with the total rent, and not with the price per sq. m.  

Data analysis

Methodology of Svoboda & Williams

Ne

Listed price

Ano

Achieved price

Price per sq. m =
Achieved sales price - price of parking Apartment area + proportional part of the exterior (b/t/g)

Algorithm for conversion of the exterior

The area of a terrace that exceeds 30% of the interior is divided by two.

The analysis is based on data obtained from the database of properties offered by Svoboda & Williams during the monitored period. We supplement the sales transactions with data from the Cadastre of Real Estate that correspond to the sample we analyze. We monitor the actual values of achieved transactions, and not the offered prices.

The chosen methodology is one of the most precise analytical tools on the market: in the calculation of the price per sq. m., we take into account the ratio of the exterior to the interior area, the quality of the property’s facilities, and we deduct the price for parking from the achieved sales price. More information can be found in the Methodology of Data Processing.

Overall summary

during the monitored period April 2023–September 2023

Average prices during the monitored period (April–September 2023) and their half-year change (compared to October 2022–March 2023)

Ø Apt. price* Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. size Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. price
New apt.** Resale apt. 1bdrm 2bdrm
Sales CZK 13,009,025 CZK 147,720 88.1 sq. m. CZK 152,220 CZK 140,804 CZK 9,116,361 CZK 13,682,707
-5.4% -1.3% -4.1% -2.1% 2.3% 2.1% -7.3%
Rentals CZK 40,542 -- 96.1 sq. m. N/A N/A CZK 27,914 CZK 42,033
6.9% N/A 4.8% N/A N/A 0.5% 4.4%

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams | *all layouts | **new builds and reconstructions

Average achieved rents vs. sales prices for specific layouts in Prague 1-10 (April 2023–September 2023)

Layout Ø Monthly rent Rentals Ø apt. floor space Ø Selling price Sales Ø apt. floor space
studio CZK 19,942 42.1 sq. m. CZK 5,224,220 36.9 sq. m.
1bdrm CZK 27,914 64.2 sq. m. CZK 9,116,361 60.1 sq. m.
2bdrm CZK 42,033 100.5 sq. m. CZK 13,682,707 92.5 sq. m.
3bdrm CZK 65,992 148.0 sq. m. CZK 19,252,682 127.3 sq. m.
4bdrm CZK 90,719 220.2 sq. m. CZK 29,812,308 202.1 sq. m.

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

SALES

Average achieved sales prices in individual districts in the monitored period (April 2023–September 2023)

City Part Ø Apt. price Ø Price per sq. m. Ø Apt. size Ø Apt. price
1bdrm Ø Apt. size 2bdrm Ø Apt. size
Prague 1 CZK 18,361,000 CZK 214,552 86.3 sq. m. CZK 14,783,333 66.6 sq.m. CZK 26,500,000 101.3 sq.m.
Prague 2 CZK 14,409,249 CZK 161,211 89.2. sq.m. CZK 9,433,674 58.0 sq.m. CZK 13,543,800 87.5. sq.m.
Prague 3 CZK 13,105,000 CZK 137,303 95.2 sq.m. CZK 8,030,000 59.3 sq.m. CZK 14,400,000 119.3 sq.m.
Prague 4 CZK 9,231,279 CZK 134,974 68.9 sq.m. CZK 7,244,015 53.8 sq.m. CZK 11,404,703 82.0 sq.m.
Prague 5 CZK 14,691,324 CZK 133,603 107.3 sq.m. CZK 9,169,325 69.8 sq.m. CZK 12,748,081 99.1 sq.m.
Prague 6 CZK 14,869,444 CZK 155,057 102.3 sq.m. CZK 9,068,333 57.4 sq.m. CZK 13,735,000 87.9 sq.m.
Prague 7 CZK 9,903,100 CZK 162,630 60.6 sq.m. CZK 8,992,233 55.0 sq.m. CZK 14,810,000 90.2 sq.m.
Prague 8 CZK 13,963,838 CZK 141,207 100.3 sq.m. CZK 9,276,667 61.2 sq.m. CZK 13,007,950 94.4 sq.m.
Prague 9 CZK 7,475,272 CZK 116,190 64.9 sq.m. CZK 6,719,333 59.4 sq.m. CZK 8,583,334 77.1 sq.m.
Prague 10 CZK 10,558,333 CZK 133,738 80.2 sq.m. CZK 7,706,250 63.1 sq.m. CZK 12,333,333 79.1 sq.m.

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

ACHIEVED SALES PRICES OF PREMIUM APARTMENTS IN PRAGUE

Price in CZK/sq. m.

RENTALS

Overall summary of average achieved rental prices in municipal districts during the monitored period (April 2023–September 2023)

Municipal district Ø Monthly rent Ø Apt. floor space Ø Monthly rent 1bdrm Ø Monthly rent 2bdrm
Prague 1 CZK 45,317 106.5 sq. m. CZK 30,737 CZK 47,679
Prague 2 CZK 41,386 101.3 sq. m. CZK 28,829 CZK 38,637
Prague 3 CZK 42,554 89.7 sq. m. CZK 25,707 CZK 43,914
Prague 4 CZK 29,100 90.3 sq. m. CZK 22,778 CZK 32,313
Prague 5 CZK 43,248 104.6 sq. m. CZK 31,010 CZK 36,435
Prague 6 CZK 42,411 107.2 sq. m. CZK 23,533 CZK 35,189
Prague 7 CZK 30,400 78.7 sq. m. CZK 27,417 CZK 35,164
Prague 8 CZK 46,135 83.3 sq. m. CZK 30,028 CZK 54,320
Prague 9 CZK 25,332 72.4 sq. m. CZK 22,275 CZK 31,400
Prague 10 CZK 39,337 103.9 sq. m. CZK 24,967 CZK 41,704

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

AVERAGE ACHIEVED RENTS IN MUNICIPAL DISTRICTS

Average achieved rents (April 2023–September 2023)

Average achieved rents (April 2023–September 2023) for 1bdrms and 2bdrms

RENTAL PRICE INDEX

An analytical tool developed in cooperation with the University of Economics in Prague that provides a more detailed view of the change in prices.

METHODOLOGY OF DATA PROCESSING

WHAT IS THE RENTAL PRICE INDEX BY SVOBODA & WILLIAMS + VŠE?

The Rental Price Index by S&W + VŠE is an analytical tool that monitors the growth of rental prices in the premium segment in Prague developed by the Svoboda & Williams real estate agency in cooperation with the Faculty of Informatics and Statistics of the University of Economics in Prague. The data is sourced from the actually achieved rents of the apartments that were listed by Svoboda & Williams. Annually, it amounts to 1,100 properties in the territory of Prague 1–10 with studio to 5-bedroom layouts. Since the properties exhibit a high level heterogeneity, we apply an aggregate price index to the development of their prices. It works just like the Consumer Price Index maintained by the Czech Statistical Office, which measures inflation.



WHY SIMPLY COMPARING THE AVERAGE PRICE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ENOUGH?

The development of average rental prices doesn’t correctly reflect the actual change in prices. This is because the average rent is influenced not only by fluctuations in prices, but also by a changed product structure. Let’s give an example. In two monitored periods, a sample of apartments including luxury apartments in the center of Prague and cheaper apartments in the broader center have been rented. The prices of both the cheaper and the luxury apartments in the second period remain equal, but more of the expensive units have been rented. This will raise average rents, but the price index will remain the same. The aggregate price index is based on the assumption of the fixed presence of rental segments in the portfolio and therefore reflects the change in price, which is “cleaned” of the change in the rental structure. The index is calculated as a weighted average of the price changes in the individual segments, where the weights are their representation in the portfolio (structure) in the selected fixed period.



CONSTRUCTION OF THE RENTAL PRICE INDEX BY SVOBODA & WILLIAMS + VŠE


Selection of segments

The segmentation made sure that the apartments in the same group were as similar as possible and, on the other hand, that the groups were as different as possible. At the same time, each group had to contain a sufficient amount of data. Within the statistical analysis, the impact of many factors on rental prices was examined. These parameters included the specific layout of an apartment, its location, floor, and whether it came with a terrace, balcony, or loggia, or the option to rent a parking space. The analysis proved that rents were most affected by the location and layout of the apartment, and therefore we performed the segmentation based on these two factors.

Based on our expertise and the data analysis of rental prices, we divided Prague into three locations—the center, the wider center, and the rest of Prague. Apartment layouts were chosen as the second factor. 

Based on the location and the layout we defined 9 segments in total: studios to one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms to three-bedrooms, and larger apartments in locations in the city center and other parts of Prague.



Selection of weights 

We assigned weights to the individual segments on the basis of the structure of the apartments rented during the calendar year of 2016. The weight of a segment in the price index is calculated as a proportion of the total rent in the relevant segment to the total rent for all segments brokered in 2016. 

The index is compiled on a biannual basis to ensure that a sufficient number of observations could be made. In practice, biannual indexes aren’t as common as monthly or quarterly indexes, but are by no means exceptional. For example, the United States Department of Labor uses one to construct the consumer price index.



We calculate two kinds of indexes

A year-on-year index  – monitors the rental price changes between the current half-year period and the previous half-year period (e.g. H4 2023 vs. H3 2022)

H3 year t includes transactions from October 1st of year t-1 to March 31st of year t.

H4 year t includes transactions from April 1st of year t to September 30th of year t.

A base index – monitors the rental price changes between the current and the so-called base period. A stable period considered a long-term “normal” default should be selected as a base period, in our case H3 2015.

The source of the data is the actual achieved rents of apartments listed by Svoboda & Williams – approximately 1,100 properties per year in Prague 1–10 with layouts from studios to five-bedrooms. Since these are products with varying price levels, we apply an aggregate price index to their development over time. It functions similarly to the consumer price index maintained by the Czech Statistical Office.

ACHIEVED RENTS FOR PREMIUM APARTMENTS IN PRAGUE

April (2023–September 2023)

CZK 40,542/month

Average achieved monthly rents in Prague during the monitored period

+6.9%

Half-yearly change compared to the previous period October 2022–March 2023

The base index tracks the change between the current (2023 H4) and so-called base period (2015 H3). Stable 2015 H3 was selected as the base period and is considered to be the long-term normal. It’s an aggregate price index, calculated as a weighted average of the changes in rent levels for each category of apartments.

Development of the price index according to achieved rents in the segment monitored by Svoboda & Williams (2015 H3 = 100)

Achieved apartment rents in H4 2023 per segment and half-year changes

Segment Center Wider center Rest of Prague
Studio to 1bdrm CZK 28,872 3.4% CZK 25,840 0.9% CZK 21,453 -1.7%
2bdrm CZK 39,766 -12.5% CZK 42,972 10.9% CZK 32,636 3.0%
3bdrm and larger CZK 73,605 -1.2% CZK 70,982 4.0% CZK 44,250 8.4%

Source: data of Svoboda & Williams

Relative representation in the portfolio

Segment Center Wider center Rest of Prague
Studio to 1bdrm 11.7% 22.6% 7.8%
2bdrm 10.7% 21.6% 4.5%
3bdrm and larger 6.0% 13.4% 1.6%

Note. Apartments with 6-bedroom layouts and larger are represented too sparsely and they are not included in the analysis.

Prague 1 Prague 2 Prague 6 Prague 5 Prague 4 Prague 3 Prague 7 Prague 8 Prague 9 Prague 10
  • Center
  • Wider center
  • Rest of Prague